The Pagano Preview May 23-24

Every Friday I look ahead to the weekend's rugby for the Irish provinces and beyond. 

History is to be made this very weekend, as a rugby institution which has gone by a particular name for many years sees it’s last game in existence before moving on to a new era.

What’s that?  You think I mean the Heineken Cup?  Well, that too I guess, but I’m really talking of course about tonight’s visitors to Donnybrook from Leeds who from next season are to go by the name Yorkshire Carnegie instead.

Joking aside, this British & Irish Cup has been a vital part of Leinster’s continued success in recent years, and I can’t find any evidence online about the competition continuing.

If it doesn’t, I hope the IRFU has plans in place to offer the four provincial “A” sides some competitive action next season, and a simple way to do this would be to have a four-team round-robin tournament taking place on the same weekends as the Rugby Champions Cup pool matches.

Without the

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Click here for TV listings. All times are Irish.

Friday, May 23

British & Irish Cup Final

Leinster A v Leeds Carnegie, 7pm

We have gotten used to these “A” occasions in Donnybrook being comfortable wins for the home side but we’re not so used to them being a final and now that Leeds are out of the promotion playoffs in the Championship, you can be sure they will be putting everything into this one.

I looked back over the two legs of their Championship playoff against London Welsh to see what we’ll be up against, and even though Leeds didn’t make it despite having opened up a decent cushion in the early stages of the first leg, they do have enough to hurt Leinster A if we’re not on our game.

They were by far the most impressive in broken play.  If your territory kick goes awry against them, they are very quick at not only spotting gaps in the defence but also exploiting them with neat support lines and precision timing in the offload.

But therein lies the rub…this Leinster outfit may be the second string of talent in the provincial pool, but so far in this campaign Girvan Dempsey’s men have shown all the evidence that we have trained with the best and this is born out most when we don’t have the ball.  Bar one try run in by Munster in the quarterfinal when the match was all but one, our D has looked every bit as impressive as that of the senior side, and I doubt Leeds will have faced much similar this season, even after 5 meetings against Championship favourites Bristol (three of them in this British & Irish Cup).

And if Leeds find scoring points hard to do, they will have to keep the home side out, and going by the two semi-final meetings with London Welsh, defence isn’t exactly their strong point.  From what I could make out from the two meetings, if you get possession in your 22, you’ll score.  And Cathal Marsh has shown in this campaign up to now that he is well capable of quarterbacking his side into good attacking positions.

So I guess you can say that I’m tipping a home victory tonight.  Of course it’s cup rugby, and anything can happen…an early sending off, a controversial interpretation of the rules, poor conditions slowing down the offence (rain forecast for D4).

But pound for pound I’d rate this Leinster A side as being capable of holding their own in the Premiership let alone the Championship.  Here’s hoping the lads prove me right and retain the trophy.  Leinster A by 12

Amlin Challenge Cup Final

Bath v Northampton Saints, 8pm

Saints are in a similar position to the one Leinster found ourselves in last year…all trophies are great but this final should only be seen as a warm up to the league final the following week which has to be a priority.  But even with other matters on their minds, I can still see them taking this one handy.  Again, much like Leinster last year.  Northampton by 9

Super Rugby

Bulls v Brumbies, 6:10pm

Saturday, May 24

PREVIEWS WILL PUBLISH ON SATURDAY MORNING

Heineken Cup Final

Saracens v Toulon, 5pm

Rugby Champions Cup Playoff 2nd leg

Stade Francais (29) v (30) London Wasps, 1:45pm

Super Rugby

Highlanders v Crusaders, 6:35am

Hurricanes v Chiefs, 8:35am

Force v Lions, 10:40am

Stormers v Cheetahs, 4:05pm

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Be sure to enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are. JLP

Puttin On The Fritz

The IRB, FFR, LNR & Stade Toulousain should have issued a joint statement by now admitting that Florian Fritz’ return to the field was wrong. 

 

“Never mind 5, 10, 15 minutes fanciful assessments - you come off, and you stay off.”

Dr Barry O’Driscoll on The Right Hook 

“It’s worth having a zero tolerance approach to it and staying out of that game [where you have been concussed].  It’s only a game at the end of the day.”

Bernard Jackman on Off The Ball

I am not a former medical advisor to  the IRB who resigned in protest on account of the regulations regarding concussion being insufficient.

Nor am I a former Heineken Cup winning hooker who has suffered many a blow to the head in his career and has since come out strongly on the subject of concussion while openly acknowledging that he and many of his fellow professionals were known to do all they could to disguise it at the time.

When it comes to rugby commentary, I am merely a blogger and in many ways my only contribution to the topic can be taking the name of the player at the centre of the latest controversy and trying to make a fitting pun for my headline.

But I also wear another hat relevant to this issue…I’m a parent.

That Toulouse v Racing Métro match may have been a quarterfinal or “barrage” as the French call it but having watched all 80 minutes of it (as well as the Clérmont v Castres contest the following day) it had an intensity to rival any test match let alone Heineken Cup one.

In fact, if you’re looking for something to prove these two matches were distinct from “ordinary” Top 14 clashes, you need look no further than the fact that the away side won both times.

To add to this importance, you have what has been a dismal season for Toulouse by their standards.  So when Guy Novès, European rugby’s answer to Sir Alex Ferguson in many ways, wants to know if Fritz can return because he chose to go for a 6/2 forwards/backs split on his bench, there won’t be many who are willing to stand in his way.

But as George Hook often says, let’s “back up the truck” for a moment.

When it comes to player safety, it shouldn’t matter what the situation is, if it’s Under 10s, Junior 4ths, Top 14 or a World Cup final.

 

Nor should it matter who the personalities are, whether it’s Florian Fritz, Novès and yes, even  Brian O’Driscoll.  BOD is a legend and now may be the time to be remembering all the amazing things he has done over the years, but this topic is too serious to overlook the fact that more than once during his career he played on after a knock when perhaps he shouldn’t have.

 

The fact remains that legislation needs to be proactive rather than retroactive and I’m beginning to wonder just how serious the consequences have to be before the appropriate action is taken by the lawmakers.

And if I’m watching a big match like Toulouse v Racing with my son, I want to be able to say to him “Ah look at the replay of that!  Fritz took van der Merwe’s knee full to the head and can hardly find his way off the pitch!  He won’t be back on, it’s for his own good.”, with a strong degree of certainty that I’ll be right.

To see Fritz then return to the field of play before the half was over creates an impression for everyone watching that things like this can be overcome. 

 

Never mind the blows to the head that aren’t picked up by the cameras.  Never mind the concussion symptoms which aren’t as obvious to the untrained eye yet every bit as dangerous.

 

Bernard Jackman says the French players’ union are considering strike action if the league doesn’t appoint an independent medical advisor to Top14 & ProD2 matches - someone with the power to over-rule not only the player but anyone involved in either club.

That is all well and good, but this is an issue too serious to be dealt with merely by one national union or competition.  Reading reports saying things like “The IRB and a sports concussion expert respond with alarm over the Florian Fritz fiasco and actions of Toulouse boss, Guy Novès” doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.

The experts are saying that the “concussion bin” is not enough and that “zero tolerance” is the only option, so the game at large should be listening.

All I’m saying is that in my humble opinion, someone needs to get the IRB and all the national unions and bash their heads together to sort this out once and for all for every level of the sport.  [Yeah, I know, another woeful pun…sorry, it’s what I do]

 

Heaven forbid my son ever finds himself in a situation similar to Florian Fritz, but if he does, he should have the protection of the rugby family at large.  I don’t even know why we need to be discussing it.  JLP

Dealing With The Pro12lem

Rather than put lipstick on the pig, what say we carve it up so more can get a taste?

		PLD	PTS
1	Irish team ending in “-ster”	21	78
2	The good Scottish team	21	74
3	Another Irish team ending in “-ster”	21	73
4	Yet another Irish team ending in “-ster”	21	66
5	OSPREYS	21	61
6	SCARLETS	21	51
7	CARDIFF BLUES	21	41
8	The bad Scottish team	21	37
9	Irish team that doesn't end in “-ster”	21	35
10	NG DRAGONS	21	31
11	Not the Benetton Italian team	21	29
12	The Benetton Italian team	21	29

What you see above could be how Welsh rugby fans see the Pro12 table.  Well…the ones who follow the regions that is.  If it’s the ones who follow the clubs, they wouldn’t be looking at it at all because they’d probably fear getting some Roger Lewis stink on them.

But whatever we say about the crisis in Welsh rugby, it seems this imperfect entity, once called the Celtic League (which at least had some branding to bind all the teams together) but now is simply called the Pro12, is to stay with us for a while.

Today we saw the publication of a Pro12 “Team Of The Year” for the 2013/14 regular season.  I’m not writing this post just to complain about the composition of the team, though I definitely could as there is only one from the Glasgow Warriors despite their having won more matches than any other team in the league this season.

Anyway…arguing over such teams is pointless.  Nobody is ever going to agree anyway.  If it were down to me, I wouldn’t have an official team like that for a multi-national league and leave such squabbles to us bloggers.

What the Pro12 needs to do in my opinion is to turn it’s biggest weakness into a strength.

I called for a conference structure before when I wrote up the Zebre v Leinster match back in February. 

Thing is though…I probably have to make my argument again - why?  Because not many people were all that interested in a writeup for Zebre v Leinster back in February, probably not even fans of the two teams involved as it was also a Six Nations weekend.

So here’s a snippet of what I said back then :

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One thing is for sure…a single 12-team league for teams from three or four separate nations is not sustainable.

In American sports, they of course have their own issues, but in general they have a decent handle when it comes to structuring the season.  One key element of this is the organisation into conferences and divisions.

This format, which was adopted by Super Rugby a couple of years ago, is designed almost exclusively to deal with many of the problems we now have in the Rabo. 

Say, for example, the 12 teams played each other throughout the season but instead of one big table there were three divisions of four along geographical lines.  Teams would still play across the divisions but there would be more emphasis on matchups within their own.

Under this system not only could you have more derby matches and less travelling, but in the Welsh case it would surely be a lot easier for the press to cover the league over there - a four-team league table of all regions looks a whole lot better (remember : a major goal is to attract new fans, even the fair-weather ones) than a big 12-team one with Irish provinces at the top.

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Here’s my suggestion for the Pro12 conferences:

IRISH	WELSH	INTERNATIONAL
Connacht	Cardiff Blues	Edinburgh
Leinster	NG Dragons	Glasgow
Munster	Ospreys	Treviso
Ulster	Scarlets	Zebre

I suggest that the regular season fixtures are cut to 20, so we can lose two rounds during international time. (If clubs are still concerned about losing two matches from a revenue standpoint why not organise lucrative exhibition matches for those dates?)

Then teams play each other within their conference four times instead of two and then each team from the other conferences once.  Would you be up for extra chances to get to interprovincial matches throughout the year?  Ulster v Leinster in Ravenhill was last Friday but the last time they met there competitively was December 2012.  Over a calendar year in between. 

I know the Scot-Italian thing could pose problems travel-wise, but what if double-headers were arranged with 5-day turnarounds?  GLA v TRE & EDI v ZEB on Sunday, GLA v ZEB, EDI v TRE on Friday, for example.  Wouldn’t be perfect, but we have to play with the hand we’ve been dealt.

Overall what it means is more derby matches, though still some cross-over ones, but most importantly when, say, the Welsh press report on the league they can focus on their own conference and a region will always be “top of the league”.  That may sound like a trivial point, but in marketing terms I feel it’s an important one. 

The common consensus is that nobody cares about clubs from other jurisdictions, so with a tweak to the structure we can give them the chance to ignore them, at least until play-off time.

As for qualification for those play-offs, obviously the winner of each conference would reach the knockout phase, plus there can be any amount of “wild-cards” you want, though I would suggest the two runners-up with the best records play each other to join the conference winners in the semifinals.

I’d also ditch the “Pro12” name to leave the league open to expansion. Maybe a long term multinational sponsor can lend it’s name (I hear Heineken might be available) but should the Welsh ever want to add a 5th region, the proposed Aberdeen franchise ever come about or dare I say it, teams from places like Georgia want to join, it should be done without having to re-brand every time.

By the way…on the notion of a “British & Irish League” - that sounds great but I very much doubt the English would ever agree to it.  It would create the very real possibility, even with the Rugby Champions Cup super-loot, of all PRL clubs going without a major trophy in a season.

I’m not saying my suggestions are perfect by any means. It’s just something to get a debate going, based on a premise that we cannot force this league through as it is and just hope that the problems it currently has will go away.

Surely it has to be better than naming three players from a region that can’t finish higher than sixth to the league’s so-called “Team of the Year”?  JLP

The Pagano Preview Apr 25-27

Really, really strange weekend coming up for Leinster fans.  We have gotten used to having a semifinal to look forward to at this time of year, and even though we actually do, unless we’re able to travel to Pontypridd there’s no way we get to see it.

I don’t expect Irish TV to show it and given the situation in Welsh rugby it may be overly contentious for either BBC Wales or S4C to give the club fans a platform to continue their “Get Roger Lewis” crusade.

So…we instead become Munster fans for the weekend and prepare to watch them stand up and fight in Marseille on Sunday.  We can do that, right?

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Click here for TV listings

Friday, April 25

Amlin Cup Semifinal

Northampton Saints v Harlequins, 8pm

Recently I did a post saying how crazy the rugby calendar is, and the way the Amlin Cup is left helps me make my point even more. 

It may be the junior European competition but as Leinster showed last season it’s still worth winning, though three of the four Lansdowne Premiership club left in this year’s edition are still in playoff contention domestically.  So what should they do…go for every match like a cup final or focus on one or the other? 

Then of course we have the fact that the English clubs aren’t supposed to care about ERC-run tournaments, which means they should really just give up on the Amlin and let Leinster keep the trophy for ever.  ;-) 

I’m going to go with the Saints wanting this more on account of it being at home. Northampton by 7

Super Rugby

Sharks v Highlanders, 6:10pm

Super Rugby 2014 has been quietly moving along in the background…well, maybe not as far as its fans are concerned but when you run a Leinster & Ireland website it’s hard to keep close tabs on such things at the business end of the season!

It’s a competition which used the conference system, one I feel the Pro12 could do well with employing.  Maybe the Welsh fans would have more interest in their regions if they were not only playing each other more often but also found themselves alone on their own league table?  The Irish provinces could also have their own conference with the the Scots & Italians in what could be called an “International” one.  But I digress.

The Brumbies and the Chiefs lead in the Aussie & New Zealand conferences respectively going into ANZAC Day weekend but it’s the Sharks from Natal with players like Frans Steyn and Bismarck du Plessis have the best record in the competition at the halfway stage and will be expected to make full use of home advantage against the visiting Highlanders from Otago.  Sharks by 14

Saturday, April 26

British & Irish Cup Semifinal

Pontypridd v Leinster A, 2:30pm

What exactly do we know about Ponty?

 
• The “pridd” part of their name rhymes a lot more with “speed” than it does with “skid”, as the Leinster announcer at Donnybrook found out to his cost when they played there in January 2013!
• With one regular season match left to play they are 6 points clear atop the Welsh Premiership and are easily the top scorers in the division having amassed over 100 points more than the next highest.
• Their passionate fans won’t thank me for mentioning that they are officially in the Cardiff Blues region. 
• They were in Leinster A’s pool last season…we won that Donnybrook encounter 21-9 but on our last visit to Sardis Park they ran out 25-23 winners prompting their fans to rejoice on social media for weeks, conveniently neglecting to point out that it was an A side they beat not the reigning European Champions.
• When it comes to their actual players, I can tell you nothing.  But given their lofty position in Welsh club rugby you’d have to assume that in terms of standards they are about as close to a 5th region as you’ll get.  Add to that their fans who will no doubt generate an intimidating atmosphere of Toulon-esque proportions and this is quite the challenge for the cup holders.

But despite the fact that the full Leinster team are off this weekend, Girvan Dempsey is pretty much sticking with the same matchday 23 which has won all 7 of their matches in the defence of their title, most of them comfortably.

Central to this progress has been the halfback pairing of Luke McGrath and Cathal Marsh.  The former showed last week he is more than capable of stepping up to play at least teams in the lower half of the Pro12, but I’d go as far to say that both can go even higher.  This semifinal will be a massive test for them to show what they can do far from the welcoming atmosphere of Donnybrook Stadium.

Of course they aren’t the only talents in the side…Noel Reid has been scoring tries for fun in the Pro12 and skipper Dominic Ryan will be extra keen to impress as due to injury he has fallen way behind Jordi Murphy and Rhys Ruddock in the pecking order.

Even the Leinster bench is strong…hooker Bryan Byrne will consider himself unlucky not to start as he had a superb cameo against Munster A in the quarterfinal while I have no stats to prove this but I’d say Leo Auva’a has to be one of the, if not the, top try-scorers in the competition history.

It all appears to boil down to how Leinster can handle the pressure on the day.  And whatever the result, it will be an experience that will stand to them.  I’ll tip them to do it, just. Leinster A by 4

Heineken Cup Semifinal

Saracens v Clérmont, 3:40pm

The English media are of course airbrushing that quarterfinal controversy out of history, but I’m pretty sure the Sarries players & fans will know just how lucky they are to be at this stage of the competition.

Not that I don’t think they have a chance at Twickers today, mind you…there are plenty of England caps out there for them so despite it being away from Allianz Park they will feel right at home, plus with 18 wins out of 20 they are well deserving of their top spot in the Premiership.

But this is the thing…just exactly how does the English club comp rank against the Top14?

Even though Clérmont are a club in decline, plus the fact that they are a French club playing away from home, you have to believe that they really want this match.  It’s effectively the same squad which came so close in both 2012 and 2013 and surely they’ll be up for a chance to make it third time lucky.

You have to assume that Sarries won’t have another 75-minute spell with an extra man, so they will need to rely on their own discipline as well as their stingy defence to keep the scoreline low.

I believe their task is similar to Munster’s in that if they can keep their opposition’s score under 20 they will have every chance.  I also believe that Sarries will fail in this task. Clérmont by 9

RaboDirectPRO12

Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh, 7:05pm

A massive game for Scottish Rugby in virtually every aspect.

On the superficial level, there is a trophy up for grabs, the 1872 Cup.  Glasgow won the first encounter by 4 points so the aggregate score will determine its destination.

Plus although Vern Cotter will be otherwise occupied down in Twickenham, he will have to have some interest in this match as it represents a good chance to view the bulk of the Scotland squad he is inheriting in the next while.

But in real terms, this match represents Glasgow’s match in hand and any kind of victory will catapult them into second place on the table and make a home semifinal a distinct possibility given they just have the two Italian sides left to face.

Edinburgh for their part are still mathematically in the hunt for a European spot but the fixture calendar hasn’t been so kind to them, with Munster and Leinster left for them.

Let’s face it…even though Edinburgh have Tim Visser and Greig Laidlaw back in their ranks, you can’t see far beyond a home win.

The only question worth asking is…should we be suspiscious if the Warriors coast to an easy bonus point win given they have only gotten the four tries once in their 15 victories so far this season?  Glasgow by 12

Sunday, April 27

Heineken Cup Semifinal

Toulon v Munster, 3:30pm

Two questions that need answering here : (1) just how “overwhelming” favourites are Toulon and (2) do this Munster team have an historic victory in them?

To answer (1), take your pick.  Reigning Heineken Cup champions, it may not be their actual home but they recently showed when they played Toulouse there that they can still whip their rugby-mad following into a frenzy, plus as expected they have played the media card.  Their pack are no doubt going to lay into Munster from the get go, and the seeds of doubt over ref Wayne Barnes have not only been sown but there have been several green shoots.

This is all before we even begin to look at their squad, where despite fitness doubts Wilkinson starts and even if he can’t last the 80, we all know what Matt Giteau can do in his stead.

Then we have the addition of Bryan Habana to the team that faced Leinster.  I mean look at that…Toulon beat the 3-time champions without the involvement of Habana. 

So given all of that, Munster don’t have a hope, right?  WRONG!

I don’t think I’m overstating the case that Munster find themselves this weekend in a position similar to that Leinster were in Croke Park back in 2009.  You may think I’m being a divil bringing up that match but in all honestly I believe it is a justifiable comparison.

With the obvious exception of Paulie, Rob Penney’s men are at least equalled in every position on the park, but as we all know, you can’t win a rugby match with individuals.  It’s how they come together which counts.

And I believe that with their front row and their maul, Munster can do enough to get the job done this Sunday.

It will take discipline, it will take 80 minutes of tough tackling, it will take performances from players which will need to surpass anything they have ever done before at the highest level.

But if Munster can get a foothold with at least their own set-pieces in the first quarter, then Toulon’s Galacticos can get frustrated and with every ten-minute block where the score remains close, the away side’s confidence will grow.

Like I said about Sarries, I believe that Munster need to keep their French opponents’ side of the scoreboard under 20 to prevail.

I would also like to make a bold prediction for this match that there will be an interception try at some stage…thing is, I’m not altogether sure which side will get it, but whichever one does will probably be heading for Cardiff in May.

Hang the bookies and the form book.  I think Munster will do it, and although in some ways it should, it won’t bother me one bit.  Munster by 3

Amlin Cup Semifinal

London Wasps v Bath, 1pm

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Be sure and enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are. JLP

It’s the calendar, stupid

The European Rugby Champions Cup is going to fix everything, right?

As the English press constantly harp on how much rosier things look in the European garden now, what say we take a look at what exactly has changed?

Teams will now find themselves in a pool of four, with two matches in October, two in December and two in January.  The pool winners will qualify for the quarterfinals.

Don’t worry - I’m not on a mission to suggest that nothing has changed at all.  With four places stripped from the Pro12 and seeding weight based on the previous season’s form rather than an overly-complicated points system spanning the last four years, in theory at least the pool strength should be a lot more equal than before.

So as you can see by the above paragraph, even though I am an Irish fan but I actually see some good in the new system.

But has the new dawn really sorted all that ails the game on this continent?  I think not.

The reasons for this “fix” have nothing to do with anything other than money.  We all know that.  With fewer clubs dividing a greater pot, it’s pretty clear what helped resolve the row.

Yet days after this major pronouncement, we are now reading that the English clubs which Mark McCafferty suggested were so unified don’t actually trust each other when it comes to playing by the rules, so how can we expect to trust them with being fair with the new competition?

And if the whole thing about Irish provinces resting players was such an issue, why wasn’t the suggested solution one that would actually fix it?

I still don’t understand why root and branch reform of the European rugby calendar isn’t higher on the pecking order of talking points these days, and I firmly believe that a major opportunity has been missed with these negotiations.

We don’t rest players for big matches here in Ireland because we want to cheat.  We rest them for big matches because the calendar gives us no choice if we want to have any hope of competing in the major competitions. 

Pro12 games one week, Heineken the next, the Six Nations slap bang in the middle of the season (sometimes with Pro12 on the same day)…when I step back from my long-term familiarity of the status quo it really does seem absurd.

Then we wonder why an All Black side can drive down the field to score a winning try at the Aviva Stadium in what was literally the final play of their season at the end of November.  Could it have something to do with the fact that the squad had been together since the beginning of August?

Meanwhile at the end of our regular season, we have the ludicrous situation of the Pro12 Grand Final happening a week AFTER the Heineken Cup one so if you happen to be in both, you are effectively punished for it. 

Never mind the fact that a team can win all it’s matches from the beginning of September to the middle of May and have absolutely nothing to show for it.

Ideally, I would like to see the Pro12/Premiership/Top14 kick off the European season, played to a finish (with fewer league matches), the Euro comps (with more pool matches) then played to a finish, then a short break before the Six Nations rounds off the season in April/May.  Then the national squads can head to the southern hemisphere for tours a lot more ready for what lies ahead.

Or, if the Six Nations absolutely had to stay where it is on the calendar (best reason I can think of for this is to make organising of Lions tours easier), why not start the season with the Euro comps before Christmas, and let the domestic ones run alongside the 6N and on through to the end of the season, a bit like the ITM Cup & Currie Cups do in the southern hemisphere.

Are we afraid here in Europe to copy systems that work elsewhere?  Because Super Rugby & the Rugby Championship are not set up the way they are to spite us, they’re set up the way they are because they tend to work.

I really don’t think it’s ridiculous to allow coaches of elite rugby teams to have the tournaments they are competing in ring-fenced on the calendar to ensure they can get the most out of their squads for the duration.  But that’s just me I guess.

We’ll just have to wait another 5-8 years until the next European row over money comes to the fore before we can look at it again. JLP

The Eyes Don’t Have It

I shook my head so much after the Payne sending off it nearly gave me a migraine. 

Absolutely no way was it anything like a sending off offence, I thought, and surely the ref was swayed by the sight of a player being stretchered off the field.

Now in the calmer times of a few days later, well, I STILL don’t think it warranted a red, but I can see why Garces gave it.

Can we look at these decisions objectively?  Is it possible to remove our allegiances towards one team or indeed our dislike of the opposition from the equation?

Well I’ll tell you this…the uniformity of the opinion from the English media certainly didn’t help.  I saw very little in their reactions to suggest they wouldn’t have a completely different view were the roles reversed.

Let’s at least try to be objective.  Take two rugby players A and B who play full back for opposite sides.  A puts up a high ball and goes to chase it.  B has it in his sights and goes to catch it.

Both are entitled to go for the ball, but B has a distinct advantage in that he is facing the ball every step of the way. 

A has kicked it in such a way that he can have a shot at retrieving it, but if he is to make it clear that he is keeping his eyes on the ball as it travels, there is no way in the world he can know what B is going to do.

Stop the frame right there.

This is all legal so far.  But isn’t it also a potential disaster waiting to happen? 

Well, where we stopped it, the worst case scenario is that the two players collide, never the safest when both are at full tilt.  But then player B takes the added measure of JUMPING for the ball.

Please note that the jump is HIS choice, and in the sport of rugby union, particularly at the highest level, he won’t be merely concerned with catching the ball, he will also have a mind to protecting it for his side when he gets to the ground.

Trouble is, when your focus is on those two things, you tend to think less about how exactly you get from mid-air to the ground.  And if your eyes are on the ball, you probably won’t notice that player A who initially kicked it is also looking back at it.

[update - as pointed out by @paddylogan13 on twitter, there is also the added dimension of player A raising his knee as he jumps]

Of COURSE I get the whole idea of player safety and that it is paramount.  But for me, a player leaving his feet for a high catch has to take some of the responsibility for what happens next - instead what we are saying is that once you jump, the laws of the game are providing a protective cocoon around the area in front of you.

Clearly the Garces decision has set a precedent that it’s not enough for the original kicker of the ball to try and keep his eyes on it in order to catch it.  So in future, either don’t kick it or if you must, rather than contest the catch you should stop a few yards away from where it’s going to land and aim to tackle the catcher (plus if he jumps then you must wait until he lands)???

I am very happy that responsibility for legislating for such things is not up to me.  I can feel that migraine coming on again after writing this post. 

But there has to be a way of dealing with this area of the game otherwise we’ll be back here again in a big match before not too long. JLP

Leinster A-47 Munster A-15

GETTING HAMMERED ON A FRIDAY NIGHT

Leinster fan or not, there’s no way of putting an objective spin on this one I’m afraid.  It was a good old-fashioned tonking by 5 tries to 2 and quite frankly it could have been by a lot more.

I don’t know much about most of the Munster “next generation”, but I’m not sure if I’d be quite so dramatic as to be worried about the province’s future or anything after this one.  It’s just that  in the first half in particular they were blown away by a Leinster side who played like a squad that has been touring together for weeks, not one patched together from the Pro12 & Academy ranks.

What impressed me most on the night was the passing through the back line, and coach Girvan Dempsey must surely take credit.  Whether it was 9 to 10, 10 to 12 or whatever, each ball seemed to go precisely into the path of the runner and it really did look as though every attack was going to lead to a five-pointer.

It didn’t help Munster’s cause that their set-pieces struggled to get going, in particular their lineout, which as you can see from the lead photo had an overthrown dart or two on which Leinster capitalised every time.

Scrum-time was also good for the Leinster pack, and they put on some well-coordinated shoves against the head for which I’d be inclined to give credit to their much-maligned second row pairing of Tom Denton and Quinn Roux, both of whom were well up for this contest and indeed Denton helped himself to one of the tries.

Man-on-the-match had to be out-half Cathal Marsh who really has come on in leaps and bounds in this B&I series and surely must be good for a Pro12 appearance before the season is out.  Two tries, a rake of successful placekicks and almost full control of the game management made him an easy choice for me and he got a much-deserved cheer from the Donnybrook crowd when he was substituted towards the end.

Now it wasn’t as if Munster just sat back and took their beating; it took them a while to get both feet in the Leinster 22 but once they did they had something of a purple patch…Rory Scannell got over the line towards the end of the first half but was somehow held up by Sam Coghlan-Murray. 

Then in the second period as you would expect they came at the cup holders from the start despite being 25-3 down and they were rewarded when a lineout-maul worked for them in the corner for Shane Buckley.

Although they added a second later through sub Jack O’Donoghue mostly thanks to a sudden absence of Leinster tacklers, the home side were able to respond in kind to each Munster score and the result was really never in doubt.

Noel Reid and Jack Conan got the other two Leinster tries, hooker James Tracy played a significant role in the Denton one and substitute hooker Bryan Byrne had a really impressive cameo, forcing two turnovers along with some good carries towards the end - the Clongowes & Tarf man has had an excellent run in this competition so far.

All in all this occasion went as all the other B&I Cup matches have gone at Donnybrook this season…enthusiastic home crowd, polished Leinster performance, squad numbers on programme not matching the actual ones out on the pitch and of course this blogger forgetting to bring a pen and having to blag one from the club shop.

Sure what else would you be doing of a Friday evening before a massive Heineken Cup weekend? 

Leinster A now play the winner of Sunday’s clash between Cornish Pirates and Pontypridd in the semis, and you’d have to expect Bristol to overcome Leeds in the other one.  So if Leinster reach the final it will make for an interesting match for Bristol-bound Jack O’Connell and Darren Hudson!  Perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself a tad…

Hello to all those reading this either in or on their way to Toulon; I’m not jealous at all, I swear ;-) JLP

The Pagano Preview Mar 28-30

I thought I couldn’t get more annoyed about this European Cup fiasco.  O how wrong I was.

Partly it was down to the way the new format has been teased out over the past couple of weeks, with countless click bait tweets from mainstream sources telling us how the deal is “about to be revealed”.

The other part was about the way the new deal is being spun in such a way as to suggest the English clubs are “getting everything they wanted”.  That somehow the Irish in particular are disgusted to have to back down and have all these things we don’t want imposed on us.

I have said countless times here that a large portion of the suggestions for format change to our premier European competition were needed.  My biggest objection was the infantile manner in which the PRL went about their campaign, and whether they achieved their objectives or not, I certainly wouldn’t be proud if I were them.

That’s not to say I’m entirely happy with the “about to be announced” new deal, and the biggest beef is over the TV deal. 

Oh, of course it seems to make perfect sense that since Sky & BT were arguing over coverage rights then let’s all just get along and let them BOTH cover the new competition!

Compromise is fine.  Normally I’m all for it.  Unless, of course, it is we the fans who are being compromised. 

Not only are both Sky & BT going to be able to reap megabucks to beam ads at us if we watch the competition on their channels, we’ll also have to pay them both a monthly subscription charge for the privilege, which for the moment works out at around €60 in total, on top of regular cable rates, which means rugby fans get the added “bonus” of such sports as soccer, darts and motocross whether they want them or not.

I’m prepared to accept that there will be something done about that by the TV companies, but let’s just say I won’t be holding my breath.

Anyway…enough of such rants.  There’s some massive games to savour this weekend, involving clubs from all over the rugby world, I might add.  Let’s be having a look at them shall we.

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Click here for TV listings

Friday, March 28

RaboDirect PRO12

Glasgow v Ospreys, 7:35pm

This a match-up that not only has massive consequences, but also gives a massive two fingers to everyone who thinks only the Irish care about this league.  Sure, three provinces occupy the top three spots, but nobody, Leinster especially, will relish meeting either of these two in a playoff, even at home.  And with Glasgow just four points behind the Welsh region with 2 home games in hand, this contest has massive implications for two clubs who clearly want to take something meaningful from this season.  Really tough one to call, but something in my bones tells me those pesky birds can sneak it.  Ospreys by 3

Ulster Bank League Division 1A

HarpinOnRugby is primarily a fan site for both the Leinster provincial team and Ireland test teams.  We won’t pretend to offer extensive coverage of anything else because we don’t (yet!) have the time to extend our remit.  So if you want to know more about the massive top-of-the-table clash at Castle Avenue tonight, or other big club rugby happenings this weekend like the semifinals of the Provincial Towns Cup, you’d be best served by the likes of KnockOn.ie.   But if all you want is an overview then Tarf trail Belvo in the league by just 3 points with a game in hand and games are running out so tonight’s clash is crucial.  Almost worth TV coverage, one might say.

Clontarf v Old Belvedere, 7:30pm

UCD v Lansdowne, 7:30pm

Lansdowne Premiership

Bath v Sale Sharks, 7:45pm

Top14

Brive v Clérmont, 7:45pm

Saturday, March 29

RaboDirectPRO12

Zebre v NG Dragons, 3pm

Think this match means nothing?  Think again.  Assuming the proposed new European format happens, the top Italian team in the Rabo will qualify for the new comp.  Even though there are whispers that Zebre will be disbanded, they are just 2 points behind Treviso who may have a game in hand but given that game is away to play-off chasing Glasgow next week I wouldn’t see that as an advantage.  Zebre also have to face the Warriors but that’s in their final match when the Scots very possibly may have already qualified for the final four and thus will no doubt rest players.  Add all that to the fact that Treviso also must still play Leinster at the RDS and you get the nailed-on fact that the italian slot is still very much in play, and what’s more I reckon it still will be after this matchup.  Zebre by 4

Benetton Treviso v Edinburgh, 6pm

See my Zebre preview for the significance of this match for the home side…but the difference in this match is that Embra have their own interests as well.  With two games in hand on the teams ahead of them, plus the fact that those two play each other on Sunday thus at least one will drop points, this match is huge for their chances of finishing sixth.  What could prove the difference, however, is the fact that Greig Laidlaw has been asked by the SRU to take a breather for the remainder of the season.  For that reason I’ll go for a home win but it could require some late heroics similar to italy v Scotland in Rome recently. Treviso by 2

Cardiff Blues v Ulster, 6:30pm

You look at the Cardiff bench and you see the name of Matthew Rees, definitely a welcome sight after all the Welsh Grand Slam hero has been through of late.  But then you look at the Ulster bench and you are dragged back into the current Pro12 reality.

Having Iain Henderson, Robbie Diack, Paul Marshall and Craig Gilroy to call on is just one of the many advantages enjoyed by Mark Anscombe going into this fixture and with the goings on at the Aviva Stadium giving them a chance to gain some ground, they will surely be immensely disappointed not to come away with at least four points.

The only thing that could hold them back would be having Sarries’ visit to Ravenhill next week to the front of their minds, but that shouldn’t bother them as they are used to having tougher HCup assignments away from home.  Hopefully they will get the job done here with any injuries, though a try bonus may be beyond them. Ulster by 12

Leinster v Munster, 7pm

CLICK HERE FOR MY PREVIEW ON THE FANTASY5LIVE BLOG

Ulster Bank League Div 1A

Cork Constitution v Ballynahinch, 2:30pm

Dolphin v Garryowen, 2:30pm

Young Munster v St Mary’s, 2:30pm

Lansdowne Premiership

London Wasps v Saracens, 3pm

Harlequins v London Irish, 3pm

Exeter Chiefs v Gloucester, 3pm

Northampton Saints v Leicester Tigers, 3:15pm

Leinster v Munster isn’t the only big top-of-the-table derby tussle today - these two are also long-standing rivals and they are also in the mix for the playoffs.  However in this case after Sale’s win over Bath last night the points are needed by the Tigers to not only stay ahead of the Sharks but also to move ahead of Bath in 3rd.  Hang on - am I daring to suggest that a game in the Lansdowne Premiership may actually be exciting?  Maybe I need to lie down…  Anyway - I’m going to tag this as my Upset of the Week and go for an away win.  Leicester by 4

Top14

Stade Francais v Racing Métro, 1:55pm

Montpellier v Bayonne, 5:30pm

Oyonnax v Grenoble, 5:30pm

Bordeaux v Perpignan, 5:30pm

Biarritz v Castres, 5:30pm

Toulon v Toulouse, 7:45pm

Super Rugby

Bulls v Chiefs, 1pm

Sharks v Waratahs, 3:05pm

Sunday, March 30

RaboDirectPRO12

Scarlets v Connacht, 2:05pm

This is Connacht’s biggest game of the season.  Yes, I am well aware that they won in Toulouse, but the fact remains that their recent run of form has put them in contention for a seat at next season’s top Euro table, and the Llanelli-based region stand in their way.

Pat Lam gets to name another unchanged side this weekend, something he has struggled to do all season and certainly doesn’t hurt a squad.  Meanwhile the significant portion of Welsh fans looking for another stick to beat WRU chief Roger Lewis with will no doubt be baying for an away win here. “Look - even the 4th best Irish province can beat us, mun!!!”

As always I am bound by the traditions of this blog when I make my prediction but be assured it comes with both a nod AND a wink.  Be sure and catch this one on RTE2 Sunday afternoon if you can, it promises to be a thriller and is every bit as important for Irish rugby as Saturday evening’s goings-on in Dublin. Scarlets by 2

Lansdowne Premiership

Newcastle Falcons v Worcester Warriors, 2pm

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Be sure and enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are. JLP

The Pagano Preview Mar 21-23

Every Friday I look ahead to the weekend's rugby for the Irish provinces and beyond. 

I had gotten used to this portion of the calendar cheering me up after yet another disappointing Six Nations campaign…now I’m in a place where anything Leinster can get out of this season will be a bonus!

During the week Leinster Rugby offered prizes for fans who renewed or bought their season tickets early; on the face of it that’s a good idea and I went for it, but there was a degree of concern among the blue faithful on account of there being so much uncertainty surrounding the league.

Sure, we’ve had a stream of articles this week telling us a European deal is “about to be signed”, but still no word on the RaboPRO12, which as far as we know has no sponsor for next season and surely can’t function without some kind of financial backing.

Only thing we can be hope for is that there are concrete plans in place and there is some logical reason why they can’t announce it yet.  And there have been events which can give us hope, like Lee Byrne signing for the Dragons next season…you’d like to think he wouldn’t put pen to paper without some kind of confidence that there would be a team to go to next season.

Fingers crossed!  On to this weekend’s action.

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Friday, March 21

RaboDirectPRO12

Ospreys v Cardiff Blues, 7:05pm

Let’s face it - this has been a crappy season for Welsh rugby, and the only hope for anything positive to come out of it will be success for one of the regions.  Well, if any from the four can do it, it’s the Ospreys, but with Glasgow just three points behind them with two games in hand it’s a big ask (as much as I hate that cliché!).  By their lineup it looks like they have chosen to go for it with several players from the Six nations massacre of Scotland starting.  We could be in line for another massacre here. Ospreys by 15

Leinster v Zebre, 7:15pm

Should we be reading anything into Fergus McFadden starting at 13?  Well I guess from now on we’ll be reading something into every name picked by Leinster & Ireland for that jumper who isn’t BOD!!!

For me the more noticeable name is that of Luke Fitzgerald.  I really, really hope he can play but based on past experience I’ll believe it when I see him on the pitch for kickoff.

Obviously this top v bottom clash is as close to a “home banker” as you’ll get and Matt O’Connor will have to be disappointed with anything less than a bonus-point victory.

The real man for the occasion is Ian Madigan.  Didn’t put a foot wrong in his enforced cameo last Saturday, he now gets to lead out his province for his 100th cap, and on his 25th birthday, no less.

I’ll be looking for performances from the “fringe” players such as Noel Reid, Darragh Fanning and in particular Tadhg Furlong, who has the potential to add his name to the list of quality Irish tight-heads which appears to be growing by the week.

A satisfying night for me will be five Pro12 points and no injuries.  If we let in a try or two more than we should in the process then so be it…no offence to the visitors but there are much bigger fish to fry down the road.  Leinster by 20

Edinburgh v Ulster, 7:45pm

Of the six Pro12 ties this weekend, this one seems to be the most likely to have an upset, as Ulster’s massive HCup quarterfinal with Sarries has to be at the back of their minds and Embra still have a fighting chance to catch the Scarlets.

Then you look at the Ulster lineup and even without the injured Ruan Pienaar they are able to put out such a strong lineup that it’s hard to back against them.

After a cameo off the bench last week, Stephen Ferris returns to starting action, my fingers are crossed for him to at least see out the season every bit as much as they are for Luke Fitzgerald.

Only hope for the home side is to try and keep things tight in the forwards because this is an Ulster backline primed to do some serious damage.  Ulster by 10

Lansdowne Premiership

Worcester Warriors v London Wasps, 7:45pm

Top 14

Clermont v Toulon, 7:45pm

I will of course be at the RDS myself tonight, but if my beloved Leinster weren’t playing I’d definitely be somewhere watching this massive 1st v 2nd clash in the Top14, not least to see how our HCup opposition are faring a couple of weeks before we meet.

Because even with the French national team players from last weekend being rested in the most part, we still have Parra, Rougerie & Hines for the home side and Giteau, both Armitage brothers and Juan Smith for the visitors so it promises to be quite the tussle.  Still can’t see past that mighty home streak though.  Clermont by 6

Saturday, March 22

REMEAINING WEEKEND PREVIEWS WILL PUBLISH SATURDAY MORNING

RaboDirectPRO12

Glasgow Warriors v Scarlets, 6:30pm

Even with three games in hand I can’t see Glasgow catching the 3 Irish provinces at the top of the table now, 10 wins out of 14 is a good return but they haven’t gotten near enough bonus point to keep up.

So they now have their sights set on the 4th-placed Ospreys and with them also winning last night with a try bonus, the Warriors need everything they can get tonight.  Thing is though, the Scarlets need the points too just in case this new Euro comp makes 6th place on the table worth fighting for.

The Llanelli-based region have Jonathan Davies back in their centre, but Glasgow also have a welcome returnee from injury - Sean Maitland has recovered from the injury he picked up in Dublin and is on the bench and surely will feature.  Not sure the home side will get 4 tries but I’d fancy them denying their guests a bonus. Glasgow by 8

Munster v Benetton Treviso, 7:15pm

The last thing Munster want is to have everything they do defined by Leinster but at this stage of the season it’s hard to avoid it.  Have had their lead worn down by their rivals in recent weeks, not only do they also host an Italian team this weekend, they also face Leinster next Saturday.

So although Matt O’Connor’s men barely impressed last night in their 27-0 bonus-point win over Zebre, Rob Penney will surely be using that score as a benchmark to his squad tonight to show they are ready for next week’s challenge.

All of the above motivation, of course, is on top of the gauntlet laid down by Denis Leamy…

There’s no rest for Six Nations hero Paul O’Connell as he goes straight back into the side, though with O’Callaghan on the bench surely it’s not for a full 80 minutes.

JJ Hanrahan has the out-half duties and Keith Earls is one of many who will be keen to show form.

One or two interesting names on the Munster bench…hooker Quentin McDonald was thought to be a Leinster target earlier in the season and you can be sure Simon Zebo will be itching to get on to bag a few more tries.

Treviso also feature some of Italy’s better performers from the Six Nations like Campagnaro and McLean but I can’t see them stopping a determined Munster surpassing Leinster’s margin from last night.  Munster by 28

Ulster Bank League Division 1A

Time is running out in the race to the title and this could be a key weekend.  Clontarf have a game in hand on Belvo at the top but still won’t want that 4-point gap to get any wider, they will need a win today and won’t find it easy away to Garryowen who are fighting for survival and with Eddie O’Sullivan’s help are starting to put points on the board.  Old Belvedere themselves are at home but it’s to a UCD side who have blown hot and cold over this campaign.  The other key match today is down at the bottom of the table as Ballynahinch, level on points with Garryowen, host Young Munster.

Lansdowne v Cork Constitution, 2pm

Ballynahinch v Young Munster, 2:30pm

Garryowen v Clontarf, 2:30pm

St Mary’s v Dolphin, 2:30pm

Old Belvedere v UCD, 2:30pm

Lansdowne Premiership

Sale Sharks v Northampton Saints, 2pm

Gloucester v Newcastle Falcons, 3pm

Saracens v Harlequins, 3:15pm

London Irish v Bath, 5:30pm

Top 14

Stade Francais v Toulouse, 2pm

Bayonne v Bordeaux-Begles, 5:30pm

Castres v Brive, 5:30pm

Oyonnax v Montpellier, 5:30pm

Perpignan v Biarritz, 5:30pm

Grenoble v Racing Metro, 7:35pm

Super Rugby

Blues v Cheetahs,

Brumbies v Stormers,

Western Force v Chiefs,

Lions v Reds,

Bulls v Sharks,

Sunday, March 23

RaboDirectPRO12

Newport-Gwent Dragons v Connacht, 3:05pm

Is it possible for Connacht to claw back the 9-point gap between themselves and the Scarlets to snatch for themselves another campaign in Europe’s top competition?  Probably not, but they have been in great form of late and Pat Lam surely must have them thinking it’s doable.

The Westerners certainly have their best side out to get the job done, particularly in the backline, while in the forwards there’s the experience of Nathan White and Michael Swift to bring on late if required.

The Dragons have some talent of their own in reserve as Toby Faletau makes a welcome return for the Men of Gwent and they too will see their season as having some life which could make this a battle right to the end.

Not for the first time in recent weeks, I bow to this blog tradition with my Connacht tradition but in truth I reckon they can do it.  Dragons by 5.

Lansdowne Premiership

Leicester Tigers v Exeter Chiefs, 2pm

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Be sure and enjoy your rugby this weekend wherever you are. JLP

The Pagano Preview Mar 14-17

Every Friday I look ahead to the weekend's rugby action for the Irish provinces & beyond.

“Munster players harshly treated” says a headline in the Irish Independent the day before Ireland’s biggest test match since the 2011 World Cup quarterfinal.

Those facts on their own don’t surprise me, and since it is so obviously “click-bait” I would normally shy away from offering a link to the article, but this hasn’t been written by provocative journos like Hugh Farrelly or Conor George.

This has actually been put forward by none other than Denis Leamy, member of the 2009 Grand Slam winning squad. 

I know players aren’t meant to read the press close to match day, but I wonder how he would have felt if he read a piece like that the day before facing Wales in Cardiff 5 years ago written by someone he used to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with?

Whether he has a point or not is irrelevant, at least not to this mini-rant.  I must admit I have raised an eyebrow or two of Joe’s selections during this campaign, but only because I could imagine the reactions of those online fans who have bitched and moaned about his supposed pro-Leinster bias before he had even chosen his first training squad.

But the significance of his contributing this at this time cannot be under-stated.  At a time when we need our fans to be united behind the green jersey, he draws a line in the sand to potentially divide us more than ever before.

And then there’s the wording : “I expect Ireland to win it”.  But do you WANT them to, Denis?

Best leave it at that and come back to it at a later date.  Massive weekend ahead and I for one am fully behind the boys in green now every bit as much as I was back in 2009. JLP

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Click here for TV listings

Friday, March 14

Women’s Six Nations

France v Ireland, 5:45pm

There’s still a mathematical chance that Philip Doyle’s girls can win the championship, though home advantage plus the prospect of a Grand Slam for the French could make that difficult.  Still though, loads to play for with the World Cup on the horizon, also being held in France.  Plus the match represents a BOD-like farewell to another legendary Irish 13, Lynn Cantwell (for the Six Nations anyway…she still plans to be involved in the World Cup).  It’s live on RTE2 by the way, a perfect start to the rugby weekend.

U20’s Six Nations

France v Ireland, 7:55pm

Results haven’t been great this time around for Mike Ruddock’s charges but this particular competition of course varies from year to year as the squads or so vastly different.  Much like the ladies, they have a world championship around the corner, in fact it’s a lot sooner so there are places on the plane to play for.  Also on d’ telly.

RaboDirectPRO12

Ulster v Scarlets, 7:05pm

With all the attention on the Six Nations this weekend, there is a lot at stake for both these sides in the Pro12.  Glasgow will have two games in hand on Ulster after this one so Mark Anscombe’s men will be keen to stretch their lead over the Scots beyond the 7pts.

Meanwhile the Scarlets are in possession of what could be a vital 6th position on the table if the rumours of next season’s Heineken Cup are to be believed, and although they are much more hurt by international callups than their opposition, they should have some confidence about them after the hard-fought victory over Munster in the last round.

Still though, home advantage plus a near-full strength squad must make ulster firm favourites to take at least four points tonight.  And how good it is to see the name S Ferris on the team-sheet again, here’s hoping he gets a good shift in off the bench and is back in full flow soon.  Ulster by 12

Top 14

Biarritz v Oyonnax, 7:45pm

Saturday, March 15

RBS Six Nations

ITALY v ENGLAND, 12:30pm

Interesting Test match this one.  Despite prevailing over Ireland at Twickenham, Ireland’s big margins of victory in other matches means that Stuart Lancaster will be forced out of his “comfort zone” today.

Against both Ireland and Wales in particular, his players showed an ability to “bring home” a fourth quarter lead which, although one that Joe Schmidt’s team may need in Paris, is not what is required today.

What they need is tries, and buckets of them.  And I’m not so sure they can afford to replicate Ireland’s patience from last Saturday and expect to nick three or four towards the end.  Not only is Parisse back for this one, it’s in Rome so surely they will be looking to end the campaign with a flourish and not as whipping boys.

Still, England put out the same starting XV, with the one change that could possibly lead to something being the addition of Manu Tuilagi to the bench.  Obviously the thinking is that if the Italians find themselves on the end of another 200+ tackle shift, the gaps in their defence will appear late on. 

We shall see, but I have to say I’d be surprised, not to mention very impressed, if the visitors get anywhere near the margin of victory they require to force Ireland beyond needing a 1-point win in paris for the title.  England by 20

WALES v SCOTLAND, 2:45pm

Dead rubber walking!!!

Sadly I cannot make it to Paris as long-term babysitters are few and far between.  Instead we have to plan our day with a view to taking in the English match at home, bringing Junior to the inlaws, and heading into town for France v Ireland.

Principal casualty of these plans was the first half of Wales v Scotland.  And as much as I enjoy watching Six Nations rugby, I am quite happy with missing a chunk of this one, at least the early stages.  If we get to the pub in the second half and Scotland are winning, well and good, we’ll enjoy the ending even if the Welsh fight back.

But if, as expected, the result is a done deal for the home side by then, we can happily let the proceedings carry on in the background.  Shaun Edwards said during the week that a win for Wales would mean it was a good campaign for them given that would have won all their home games.  Nice bit of turd-polishing, that!

The Scots under Scott Johnson have been positively awful this year, and hopefully there’s enough there to work with when Vern Cotter takes over.

As for Wales, with Leigh Halfpenny out I just cannot fathom why Gatland has gone for Liam Williams to start ahead of James Hook, whatever the relevance of this contest.  Not the decision of someone I’d like to have picking the Lions in 2017, that’s for sure.  Yeah, I’m still bitter, sue me. Wales by loads

FRANCE v IRELAND, 5pm

CLICK HERE FOR MY PREVIEW ON THE FANTASY5LIVE BLOG

Super Rugby

Hurricanes v Cheetahs, 3:35pm

Highlanders v Western Force, 6:35am

Brumbies v Waratahs, 8:40am

Lions v Blues, 1pm

Sharks v Reds, 3:05pm

Sunday, March 16

Leinster Schools Senior Cup Final

Blackrock College v Clongowes, 2pm

With HoR being a “pro” site this season I haven’t had any time to follow the Schools Cup, not even on TV.  That has to change next season because I really enjoyed last season’s campaign, and not just because my alma mater won it!  With yet another potential Leinster back rower Nick Timoney leading the sides the Rock have to be fancied for number 68 but on the day you can just never know.

LV= Cup Final

Northampton Saints v Exeter Chiefs, 3pm

Never forget this fact - for all the English clubs’ moaning about the Pro12 clubs putting out having easy paths into Europe and fielding weakened teams, this match at Sandy Park, for which the Saints are forced to field a reserve XV what with the Six Nations, has a Heineken Cup place as a prize for the victors.

Monday, March 17

Munster Schools Senior Cup Final

Crescent v Ads Scoil Rís, 3pm

Ulster Schools Senior Cup Final

Methodist College v Sullivan Upper School, 3pm

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Be sure and enjoy your St Patrick's Day weekend rugby wherever you are. JLP

The Pagano Preview Mar 7-9

I have been pretty quiet all through the week about BOD.  No lists of 13 things, no YouTube montages of his greatest moments, just the odd passing mention.  Plus a banner to sit atop my preview of course.

That is not because I have anything against him - far, far from it.  But although I appreciate the significance of this being his last game for Ireland at HQ, the fact that there is so long left in his final season makes me prefer to focus my energies on the build up to the match itself, much the same as he would.  There’s a Championship to be won goddammit!

One thing that IS worth mentioning is that he is breaking George Gregan’s all-time caps record and that really is some achievement.

Still, even that has my superstitious gland working overtime.  We know he definitely won’t have “one more year”, but hopefully he’ll still be good for one more game the following week in Paris!   Plus there’s the small matter of a trip to Toulon in April!

Especially for someone who has given so much of himself for the jersey, it’s going to be hard enough for him this week and indeed for the rest of the season to focus on the job at hand.  IMO we can wax lyrical about his amazing career afterwards.  Between now and the end of the season let’s just savour every pass, every tackle and every try.

Now it’s time for me to get a whole rake of match predictions horribly wrong same as I do every week…

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Click here for TV listings

Friday, March 7

Under 20s Six Nations

Ireland v Italy, 7:05pm

No prospect of a title for Mike Ruddock’s Wolfpuppies this year, but definitely a chance for them to play some winning rugby tonight.  The likes of Ross Byrne, Sean O’Brien óg and Adam Byrne will start and watch out for Harrison Brewer (son of Mike) off the bench wearing 23 - played at centre in school for Terenure and definitely has the potential to go far.

Of course even though silverware is off the table there’s loads to play for - the small matter of a trip to New Zealand in June for the Junior World Championship and a pool which includes Wales, Fiji and our opponents next week, France.

Saturday, March 8

Remaining previews will be here Saturday morning.

RBS Six Nations

IRELAND v ITALY, 2:30pm

CLICK HERE FOR MY PREVIEW ON THE FANTASY5LIVE BLOG

SCOTLAND v FRANCE, 5pm

If the Scots are to have any hope of causing an upset today they will need to rely on two things, one they cannot control, the other they most definitely can.

The woes in the French squad have been well-documented…when that dressing room turns against its coach it’s almost impossible to win them back, but there is always the possibility of them playing for themselves so as usual, we will have to see which set of Les Blues turn up at Murrayfield.

One thing is for sure - if they do perform it will only be after wholesale changes to their lineup - deprived of game changers such as Fofana, Picamoles and Parra for widely contrasting reasons, the side certainly isn’t one I’d pick even with the players available but like i say there’s every chance they could click.

For the Scots’ part they very much need to channel the good will brought about by that late winner in Rome and be sure and come at the French with everything they have from the kickoff - anything less would surely be a major disappointment to the home faithful.

So basically what I’m saying is that despite the fact that my prediction goes the other way, I can still see a path to a home victory.  Claassen and Fickou off the bench could be the key should the French need to pull something out of the bag late on.  France by 8

Women’s Six Nations

Ireland v Italy, 5pm

Of course it’s a super idea to hold this at the Aviva, particularly on International Women’s day.  I just hope they get a decent turn out…fans from the men’s game can stick around if they want but many will be tempted to hit the pub for Scotland v France so this match could well have a “Edinburgh Pro12 match in Murrayfield” atmosphere.

Still, as skipper Fiona Coghlan pointed out on a 2fm panel during the week, the girls are very much looking forward to this unique opportunity to play at HQ and you certainly can’t deny they deserve it, particularly after the conditions they had to endure in the reverse of this fixture last season to secure the Slam!

Ulster Bank League Division 1A

Ballynahinch v Old Belvedere, 2:30pm

LV= Cup Semifinal

Northampton Saints v Saracens, 12:30pm

Super Rugby

Crusaders v Stormers, 6:35am

Western Force v Melbourne Rebels, 8:40am

Bulls v Blues, 3:05pm

Sharks v Lions, 5:10pm

Sunday, March 9

RBS Six Nations

ENGLAND v WALES, 3pm

The Bosh Bowl.  This certainly won’t be one for the faint-hearted.  Stuart Lancaster will have his boys well-drilled as usual with a gameplan while Gatland’s will be doing everything they can to help them forget it.

But while I can see the benefits from making only injury-forced substitutions after the hard-earned win over Ireland, I thought Jonny May wasn’t up to scratch that day and could be seen as a weak link to be exploited out wide by the likes of Cuthbert & Faletau early on.

Also I reckon the Welsh have the stronger bench with Coombs, Tipuric & Phillips all well able to provide instant impact in their specific areas if required.

Still though, we can’t let this England team play the humble underdog card forever, can we?  I want to see them under some decent pressure before these matches and if their home media won’t do it, then it should be us.

Though this is likely to be a tight one, it could well rest on refereeing decisions and 80k simultaneous renditions of Swing Low are bound to sway Monsieur Poite towards a home win.   England by 4

LV= Cup Semifinal

Bath v Exeter Chiefs, 1pm

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Be sure and enjoy your Six Nations weekend wherever you are. And if you’re at Lansdowne Road, be extra sure to enjoy yourself.  It’s meant to be a celebration of an amazing career, not a sad farewell. JLP