Week 17 fixtures (all times Irish)
Friday, 6 July 2012
Chiefs v Crusaders, 08:35
Reds v Highlanders, 10:40
Sharks v Bulls, 18:10
Saturday, 7 July 2012
Blues v Western Force, 08:35
Waratahs v Brumbies, 10:40
Cheetahs v Stormers, 14:00
Lions v Melbourne Rebels, 16:05
Another week of Super
Rugby has passed and not much has changed in the race for the finals
with nine teams looking to squeeze into final six. The results, save
for the Highlanders loss to the Chiefs, all fell to the favour of the
finals combatants. The Hurricanes surprise victory against the
Crusaders has contracted the race between the New Zealand conference
teams and they get the benefit of the bye this week and the four
points that go with it.
The penultimate round of
Super 15 presents with some of the best games of the season with the
Chiefs playing the Crusaders and the Sharks playing the Bulls. The
later game could have a marked effect on the final make up of the top
6 with the Sharks prospects on the line against the Bulls.
There are three games to
kick the round off on Friday night and the first of those sees the
Crusaders travel to the Waikato to take on the tournament
leading Chiefs. The Crusaders were, frankly, disappointing
against the Hurricanes but it must be said they were missing some of
their stars. The return of Dan Carte rand Kieran Read this week will
be a massive boost for them. If they lose this game they may find
themselves out of contention so one could expect that they will be
primed for a victory here. The Chiefs come into this fixture
already having a home playoff locked in. They got the job done
against the Highlanders without being super impressive and will be
better for that run last week. They have only lost two games this
season and are rightly favourites at the moment to take out the whole
tournament. This is a game that they need to win to cement
themselves as a genuine contender for the title. I think the Chiefs
are the real deal this year and am tipping them to win this one in a
game that should be a classic. Chiefs by 6
Friday night’s second
game comes to us from Lang Park where the Reds host the
Highlanders. The Reds have won their last four games and have
only lost one game at home all year. The combination of Genia,
Cooper and Harris is really starting to gel and coupled with a
forward pack starting to dominate their opposition, the Reds are
striking form at the right time of the season. If they play the way
they did in the first half against the Rebels they will be very
difficult to defeat. Equally it must be noted that once replacements
had to be made in the second half against the Rebels much of the
Reds’ continuity went missing. The Highlanders have dropped out of
contention for the finals after losing to the Chiefs last week and
now may be the spoilers that the Reds do not need in their quest to
retain their crown. In attack the Highlanders are replete with
quality players including the always impressive Hosea Gear but they
seem to have lost their way in recent rounds and have given up starts
early in games that they have not been able to run down. There is
everything to play for for the Reds and in front of a Friday night
full house at Lang Park I cannot see them dropping this game. Reds
by 8
The final Friday night
fixture is an unusual Friday game from South Africa. The Sharks
host the Bulls at ABSA Stadium in a game that will have a
large impact on the make-up of the final six. The Bulls bested the
Cheetahs last week to lock in their first win in four weeks and were
certainly impressive in the first half to break the spirits of the
Cheethas to gain five valuable points. Stacked with Springboks, they
have not really had a chance to refresh over the international break
which may cause them some problems as things get towards the finals
but also gives the Bulls the advantage in that they have maintained
match fitness and continuity whilst other teams have been resting.
The Sharks come into this fixture having lost before the break to the
Lions and then the bye last week. Their Springbok players aside,
they have not had a lot of rugby in the last five weeks. They do
have a quality forward back and will need to win the forward battle
in this fixture to have a chance to defeat the Bulls and keep their
finals hopes alive. I am leaning towards the Bulls in this one
principally as a result of the Sharks not having played much rugby in
the last five weeks. Bulls by 4
In the battle of the
cellar dwellers at Eden Park the Blues host the Force
on Saturday evening. Both teams have been disarray this season with
coaching dramas and player insurrections and will be desperate to
secure a win in this fixture. The Blues have been the
disappointments of the season and have won only two out of fourteen.
They will be desperate to win in front of their home crowd which is
likely to be a small one given recent form. The Force improved in
the second half against the Brumbies but really by then the game was
already over. They have only won one game on the road this season
and simply do not have the backline to challenge the quality teams in
this competition. Their backline limitations could again have a
large bearing on the outcome of this game because I expect their
forwards to be equal to the task set for them by the Blues.
Ultimately I think the Blues will have too much fire power in the
back line and will condemn the Force to their twelfth loss of the
season. Blues by 7
The Brumbies travel
east on Saturday night to take on the Waratahs at the Sydney
Football Stadium. The Waratahs have made significant changes to
their back line this week with Foley getting an opportunity at fly
half and they will have their first choice wingers, Turner and
Mitchell, back for the first time this season. They have not won a
game in nine weeks and whilst there have been some close games in
that period they really have not played well. Their reliance on
kicking has cruelled them and one thing the Test break has shown us
is that Berrick Barnes has been in excellent form but seems to have
been let down by the players around him. The Brumbies continue to
prove the doubters wrong and just keep winning. Equally, if they
wish to secure the top spot in the Australian conference they need to
keep on winning. They have a backline replete with try scorers and
have a forward pack that is growing in stature each week led by their
international front row. I cannot see the Waratahs breaking their
losing streak in this fixture despite the changes to the backline and
expect the Brumbies to win in a tight one. Brumbies by 6
In the first of two games
in the early hours of Sunday morning (Australian time), the Cheetahs
host the Stormers in Bloemfontein. The Stormers were fairly
ordinary last week against the Lions it must be said and they
continue to fail to score points. That said, despite having scored
less points than all but the bottom four teams and fewer tries than
only the Lions, they consistently find ways to win. They win through
having the best defence in the competition and that defence again
will be on display against the Cheetahs. The Cheetahs are enigmatic
to say the least: they attack vibrantly, the defend terribly, they
are generally poorly disciplined at the breakdown and they have only
won five games all season. Last week they played well in patches
against the Bulls but again their inconsistency and poor discipline
let them down. The Stormers will be too strong in this fixture and
may well sneak out a very welcome bonus point if they can finally
find their attacking mojo. Stormers by 11.
The final match of the
round is the antithesis of the first: this game presents as likely to
be the worst of the round with the Lions hosting the
travelling Rebels at altitude in Johannesburg. The Lions face
the real prospect of not surviving in Super 15 after these final two
fixtures and have pride to play for as well their ongoing futures.
Whilst the Stormers were less than impressive last week, the Lions
certainly tested them at certain points during the fixture. They
have shown that when on song they can score points with no more
stunning an example being their shock victory over the Sharks before
the international break. The Rebels are terrible travellers and this
international tour to finish the season could not come at a worse
time for them off the back of injuries to their main men O’Connor
and Beale. Ultimately I cannot see the Rebels improving their away
form in this fixture and expect the Lions to win and possible win
well. Lions by 12.
Bye: Hurricanes
Match of the Round:
the first match of the round is a ripper with the Chiefs taking on
the Crusaders in a game which could now, after their loss last week,
play a large role in where the Crusaders finish on the table this
season.
Steve is sports tragic and is particularly fanatical about rugby and cricket. A proud Reds member, Steve is also a fan of Wallabies as well as the Welsh team (when they are not playing the Wallabies). When not following rugby, cricket and all other sports, Steve is an account director at an accounting firm.
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